The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on November 29th the preliminary anti-dumping duty rates on crystalline photovoltaic cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The rates vary significantly, with Cambodia facing a steep 125.37% duty, while Malaysia's rates range from 0% to 81.24%, Thailand's from 77.85% to 154.68%, and Vietnam's between 53.30% and 56.51%.
From BJNEWS
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on November 29th the preliminary anti-dumping duty rates on crystalline photovoltaic cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The rates vary significantly, with Cambodia facing a steep 125.37% duty, while Malaysia's rates range from 0% to 81.24%, Thailand's from 77.85% to 154.68%, and Vietnam's between 53.30% and 56.51%.
This decision poses a significant challenge to Chinese solar companies who have been the major investors and founders of the solar industry in Southeast Asia as a gateway to the U.S. market.
Industry analysts report that by the first quarter of 2024, Chinese companies have established a substantial 50GW in module capacity in Southeast Asia, with cell and wafer capacities at approximately 45GW and 27GW, respectively.
JinkoSolar, one of China’s and the world’s largest solar manufactuer, is facing a minimum anti-dumping duty rate of 21.3% on its 7GW solar capacity in Malaysia, while its 8GW capacity in Vietnam is subject to a 56.5% rate. Trina's 6GW capacity in Vietnam is set to confront a 53.3% rate, and Tianhe's facility in Thailand is staring down the barrel of a 77.9% rate.
Research by China’s investment bank and brokerage company Orient Securities indicates that since 2012, the U.S. has implemented a series of trade barriers on photovoltaic productsimported from China, pushing Chinese solar companies to relocateto Southeast Asia to tap into the U.S. market's high premiums. With the new anti-dumping duty in place, these solar manufacturers in Southeast Asian countries can easily lose their competitiveness. Concurrently, with IRA subsidies bolstering the industry, U.S. domestic solar module production is on the rise. The future U.S. solar supply structure is expected to pivot from a Southeast Asian integrated export model to one dominated by "imported materials + local modules."
During the mid-2024 performance briefing, LONGiGreen Energy's Chairman Zhong Baoshen stated, "The capacity of the four Southeast Asian countries entering the U.S. market will be taxed in the future. Given the high tax rates, Vietnam's (solar) productswill likely not be able to enter the U.S. market; Malaysia’s and Thailand's export modules are unlikely to compete, but cells may still find a market." In November, LONGiGreen Energy reiterated to institutional investors that the real impacts on Southeast Asian solar capacity are yet to be seen pending the anti-dumping duty rates. The final determination is expected by mid-2025.
Considering the gap in high-efficiency cell capacity in the U.S., there is optimism that Southeast Asian cell capacity could continue to penetrate the U.S. market. Meanwhile, in response to these challenges, Chinese solar companies have been investing in and constructing production capacity in the U.S.. The key to future development lies in strategicestablishment of production lines within the U.S. to evade tariff sanctions and capitalize on U.S. government subsidy policies.